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2007年01 期
| 标题 |
| 基于Holt-Winter模型的铁路货运量预测研究(29 卷) |
| 英文标题 |
| Study on the Forecast of Railway Freight Traffic Volume Based on Holt-Winter Model |
| 摘要 |
| 建立Holt-Winter预测模型，将具有线性趋势、季节变动和随机波动的时间序列进行分解研究，并与指数平滑法相结合，分别对长期趋势、趋势的增量和季节波动做出估计。介绍该模型的3个平滑方程和1个预测公式，以及初始值的计算和最优加权系数值的确定。通过实证分析，将预测结果与 |
| 作者 |
| 新闻作者:童明荣，薛恒新，林 琳 |
| 关键字 |
